Chollet：软件工程自动化会把系统瓶颈移到别处
关于软件工程“完全”自动化的几点观察：
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现在软件工程师的数量比 2025 年更多，而且需求还在增长。
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软件工程师从未像现在这样辛苦地工作。
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他们基本上不再自己写代码了，智能体编写了约 100% 的代码。
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雇用这些工程师和智能体的公司，其盈利状况（也就是所有这些代码最终服务的目标）通常并没有因为采用 AI 而改善。
这就是为什么你必须从系统的角度思考。将系统的某一方面自动化，会产生它自身的摩擦，并把瓶颈转移到别处。
对照原文
Some observations about the "total" automation of software engineering: 1. There are more software engineers now than in 2025, and demand is growing. 2. Software engineers have never worked harder than they do now. 3. They largely don't write code anymore, agents write ~100% of the code. 4. The bottom line of the companies that employs these engineers and agents (i.e. the terminal purpose of all this code) is typically not budging as a result of AI adoption. This is why you have to think in terms of systems. Automating one aspect of a system creates its own friction and moves the bottlenecks elsewhere.