François Chollet：持续的 AI 进步需要利润与投入形成闭环
大多数衡量 AI 进步的指标在 2023-2026 年期间非常贴合指数增长曲线。与此同时，同一时期 AI 资本支出略呈超指数增长（即增长率本身正在增加）。
因此，如果你将 AI 建模为一个系统，该系统以外部投资作为输入并输出 AI 进步，那么该系统具有略微亚线性的响应。
但是，外部 资源的超指数注入在长期内不可持续。要实现持续的指数进步，AI 行业需要实现匹配的指数利润——它需要闭合资源循环。
对照原文
Most measures of AI progress closely fit an exponential over the 2023-2026 period. Meanwhile AI capex over the same period has been slightly super-exponential (i.e. the rate of growth itself is increasing). So if you model AI as a system that takes as input external investment and outputs AI progress, that system has a slightly sub-linear response. But super-exponential injection of *external* resources is not sustainable in the long-term. To achieve sustained exponential progress, the AI industry will need to achieve matching exponential profits -- it will need to close the resource loop.