AI 进展与实验室收入，超出了此前的预测
中文全文 · AI 翻译
事情发展得相当快。
在 2025 年 9 月接受询问时，顶尖的超级预测者认为，AI 在 2026 年 9 月之前解决一道千禧年难题的概率是 1.7%；而更乐观的行业专家给出的概率是 4.6%。
他们也大幅低估了 AI 实验室的收入。
此外，预测者对更短时间跨度的预测，似乎反而可能错得更离谱。这是去年一次落空的预测：https://x.com/emollick/status/1962859757674344823?s=20
对照原文
Stuff is happening quite fast. When asked in September 2025, the best superforecasters put the chance of AI resolving a Millennium Problem by September 2026 at 1.7% and (the more optimistic) industry expert put the chance at 4.6% They also greatly underestimated AI Lab revenue. https://t.co/9HCR0lvXJQ
Thread on this topic: https://t.co/W2xNrqj3kk
It also appears that forecasters may be becoming more wrong on shorter timeframes. This was last year's missed prediction. https://t.co/RFZtG7aMrt