AI 的积极未来、风险与政策选择
一种未来是我们设法应对大多数风险（& 存在性风险被防止），以及早期数据所暗示的积极影响——更高的生产力、更多的科学发现、更高水平的创业活动、就业稳定/增长（这一项在该组中最不确定的）——持续下去
预测一个非常合理、甚至很可能的情景并不难，即事情最终总体上会朝着好的方向发展，尽管会有一些负面事件，但这些事件永远不会达到灾难性水平（这是人类历史上所有其他通用技术发生的情况），但问题在于，也存在真正的可能性，我们正面临一种冯·诺伊曼式的奇点，在这种奇点中，人类事务将以无法预测的方式被人工智能戏剧性地重塑。
毋庸置疑，我们的政策应该积极引导我们走向美好的AI世界。
对照原文
One future is that we muddle through on most risks (& the existential ones are prevented) and the positive impacts that early data hints at — higher productivity, more scientific discovery, higher entrepreneurship, employment stable/growing (most tentative of the set) — continue
It is not that hard to predict a very plausible, and even likely, scenario that things end up broadly good with some negative incidents that never reach catastrophic level (that is what happened with all other General Purpose Technologies in human history), but the issue is that there is also the real possibility that we are facing a von Neumann-type singularity where human affairs get reshaped dramatically by AI in ways that impossible to predict.
Needless to say, our policies should be actively guiding us towards the good AI world.